rspeare.github.io

So a few friends of mine are working on Stochastic ODE's and their connection to path integrals. After dorking out about this for a few moments, I'm able to make some ``baby'' statements about the problem. If you consider a sequence of random numbers: $$\begin{eqnarray} \left \lbrace \mathbf{X}_i \right \rbrace_{i=1}^n \end{eqnarray}$$ which is determined by the following difference equation: $$\begin{eqnarray} d\mathbf{X}_i = \mathbf{X}_{i+1} - \mathbf{X}_i &=& a_i+\mathbf{W}_i \end{eqnarray}$$ subject to the initial condition $\mathbf{X}_0=0$ You can express the solution as a sum of two sums -- one deterministic and one random. $$\begin{eqnarray} X_n &=& \sum_{i=0}^n a_i + \sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{W_i} \end{eqnarray}$$ Where I have boldfaced all random variables. For instance $a_i$ is a real sequence of numbers, perhaps they are the same for all $i$. $\mathbf{W}$ is a noise variable, or some random forcing function. We see that the solution after N steps will be $$\begin{eqnarray} \mathbf{X}_n &=& n a+ \sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{W}_i \end{eqnarray}$$ Now, if we see that $\mathbf{W}_i$ is drawn from some probability distribution at every single step $i$, we know that, at asymptotic times $N \to \infty$, subject to certain conditions on the probability density of $W_i$, our distribution on $\mathbf{X}$ will converge to a Gaussian. This is very cool, and not necessarily dependent on $\mathbf{W}$ being an identically independently distributed variable. We simply say that if $$\begin{eqnarray} \mathbf{W_i} & \sim & N(0,\sigma^2) \ \ \forall i \end{eqnarray}$$ then, $$\begin{eqnarray} \mathbf{X_N} &\sim & na(t)+ N(0, n \sigma^2) \end{eqnarray}$$ Where $N(0,\sigma^2)$ stands for a normal distribution with zero mean and variance $\sigma^2$. Note that, this is simply a conclusion from the addition of cumulants under convolution -- which is what you do when add random variables. $$\begin{eqnarray} Z&=&X+Y \\ X & \sim & N(c_1, c_2)\\ Y & \sim & N(c_1^\prime, c_2^\prime )\\ Z & \sim & N(c_1+c_1^\prime, c_2+ c_2^\prime ) \end{eqnarray}$$ So our cumulants add, and the central limit theorem hinges upon this, because since our characteristic function -- or the fourier transform of our probability distribution -- is bounded above by one (1), when we convolve tow distributions in real space we multiply in frequency space, making the characteristic function of our result variable $Z$ -- which is very much like an average, thinner and thinner and thinner... Meaning that you can truncate the characteristic function's cumulant generating function $\psi$ at order $k^2$, leading to a Gaussian. This means that any sum of random variables, even they are not identically and independently distributed -- although they must be independent in order to convolve -- and even if those variables have non-zero higher order cumulants, like skewness $c_3$ or kurtosis $c_4$, will give you a Gaussian in the $n \to \infty$ limit. This is an analog of the law of large numbers. So why do we care in this Stochastic ODE case? It means that under linear dynamics, at asymptotic times, we converge to a Gaussian distribution on $\mathbf{X}$, even our noise function itself has very strange properties, like higher order cumulants. This is very strange indeed, and comes from the fact that system is **linear**, i.e. we are **adding** random variables together. Under non-linear evolution, it can be shown using Perturbation theory that non-zero third and higher order moments are created, but showing this in the stochastic framework is a bit difficult... It is easy to show however, that an equation like: $$\begin{eqnarray} L_0 \delta &=& \delta^2 \end{eqnarray}$$ where $L_0$ is some linear differential operator, can be expanded in power series of small parameter $\lambda$ $$\begin{eqnarray} L_0 \delta &=& \lambda \delta^2\\ \delta &=& \sum_{i=1}^\infty \lambda^i \delta_i \end{eqnarray}$$ So we have, to each order: $$\begin{eqnarray} \lambda^0 : L_0 \delta_0 &=& 0 \end{eqnarray}$$ which is our linear solution. Then we have to leading order: $$\begin{eqnarray} \lambda^1: L_0 \delta_1 &=& \delta_0^2 \end{eqnarray}$$ Now we find, that if we take the connected third moment, or the third cumulant, we get a nonzero value: $$\begin{eqnarray} \langle \delta^3 \rangle &=& \langle \delta_0 ^3 \rangle +\lambda \langle \delta_0^2 \delta_1 \rangle + \dots \end{eqnarray}$$ If $\delta_0$ is Gaussian distributed, as we found that we would be for some driving function at asymptotic times -- or if we simply assume Gaussian initial conditions -- then we know that $\langle \delta_0^3 \rangle =0$. The leading order term however, will not be zero, because it goes like $\sim \delta_0^4$, which under Wick's theorem/Gaussian statistics can be built out of second cumulants. So see that non-linearity gives non-zero skewness and kurtosis, and other higher order things, at late times. The key to connecting this with Stochastic ODE's lies in the fact that we are not adding random variables anymore but multiplying them, and this is a very peculiar type of convolution, which in general does **not do a simple addition** of cumulants. I will have to look more into this. Note: The lognormal distribution is the convergent distribution for a product of random variables, since the log of the product is the sum of the logs. So perhaps it could be shown that some non-linear Stochastic ODE's go to a lognormal (which I believe is already a common concept on Wall street, for estimating the dynamics stock prices).